[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The TSOs of the TENP pipeline are executing maintenance works which lead to significant reductions of transport capacity (mainly Exit Capacity Wallbach) from April to October since several years. This winter it was the first time that these reductions are also ongoing during the winter months.
This article tries to summarize possible implication of a longer outage of the TENP pipeline with relevant substantial capacity reductions.
Germany
The internal reservation in Germany at German outlet points are increasing since years but the remaining available capacities will be sufficient to cover this demand and therefore no negative implications for the security of supply for southern part of Germany is to be expected.
Substantial investments to re-establish the full transport capacity in TENP would increase transport tariffs of OGE and FluxysTENP.
Switzerland
This increase of internal reservation for Southern Germany leads as we can notice since years to a reduction of technical available capacity in Wallbach.
Wallbach is the most important import point for Switzerland as approximately 80% of Swiss demand is imported in Wallbach.
Despite this situation the Suppliers of the Swiss customers should be in the position to source sufficient gas to cover the Swiss gas demand due to the following reasons.
The technical available capacity in Wallbach is even in case of a longer outage of TENP pipeline still by far higher than the maximum capacities necessary for the supply of Swiss customers. Nevertheless, the premium on the auction will most probably increase and the Swiss Suppliers will have to accept higher exit costs in Wallbach. The premium will be driven by the spread NCG/PSV since Swiss suppliers in the auction are in competition with traders transporting gas to Italy (PSV). Long term booking from ENI connected with the import contract with GasTerra will end in the next years and consequently the situation will improve and additional exit capacity Wallbach will be marketed.
Furthermore, the reverse flow project allowing physical flows from Italy to Switzerland, France and Germany, (http://www.fluxswiss.com/en/TransitgasSystemInfo/ItalyBelgium/ReverseFlow), which is foreseen to be operational in October 2018 will open new possibilities for Swiss suppliers to source gas in Italy.
Italy
The reduction of exit capacity in Wallbach and the probably higher exit costs in Wallbach will reduce the possibility to transport gas at commercially attractive prices via Transitgas to Italy and will therefore reduce the sourcing opportunities in of Italian Shippers in Northern Europe.
Conclusion
Security of supply for Swiss and German customers should not be endangered
Mainly the import quantities via Transitgas to Italy would be reduced. Directly due to less transit through Switzerland or indirectly due to reverse gas flows in Passo Gries. Furthermore, the future sourcing potential for Italian shippers in Northern Europe would be limited.
Substantial investments to re-establish full technical capacity will increase transport capacity costs in Germany and therefore not only Swiss and Italian shippers, but also German customers will be affected.
Josef Winkler, Managing Director, Winkler Energy & Logistics Consulting, www.elcgmbh.ch
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